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Oil Addiction

The Role of Oil and Gas in Driving Job Growth

June 1st 2012

Helix Q 4000 Drilling Platform

Today's employment report suggested slowing employment gains and is sure to disappoint observers hoping for greater strength in the labor market. Employers added just 69,000 jobs in May and estimates of job gains in March and April were revised lower. In addition, the unemployment rate ticked up from 8.1 percent in April to 8.2 percent in May. On top of the 12.7 million unemployed, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are approximately 2.4 million people not in the labor force who want to work, and have looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.

Employment increased in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade. In addition, one industry that has experienced considerable jobs growth since 2007 is the oil and gas industry, which has expanded rapidly in the wake of new technological innovations over the last few years. In particular, hydraulic fracturing—or “fracking”—and other new extraction methods have increased sharply the domestic supplies of natural gas and petroleum.

In past months, The Hamilton Project has examined trends in employment throughout the Great Recession and the recovery. This month, in advance of The Hamilton Project’s June 13th energy forum at Stanford University, we explore what increased domestic gas and oil production means for America’s households and businesses, the environment, and employment. We also continue to update our analysis of the “jobs gap,” or the number of jobs that the U.S. economy needs to create in order to return to pre-recession employment levels.

In recent years, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques have enabled the recovery of natural gas reserves that were previously thought to be too difficult or costly to access. These new techniques led domestic shale gas production to increase by nearly 50 percent between 2008 and 2009 alone. Largely as a result of this shale revolution, total U.S. natural gas production jumped from 18.5 trillion cubic feet in 2006 to 23 trillion cubic feet in 2011 (Energy Information Agency 2012). Read more ..

Broken Borders

DOJ Sues Las Vegas Casino for Screening Non-Citizen Workers

June 1st 2012

Roulette Wheel

While proponents of immigration enforcement have been told that the federal government monitors the hiring of illegal aliens by the private sector, including adherence to the federal employment verification (I-9) program, Attorney General Eric Holder's Justice Department appears to have made a decision to penalize organizations that zealously comply.

For example, on Thursday the Justice Department announced that it filed a civil lawsuit against the Tuscany Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, accusing the company of engaging in "a pattern or practice of discrimination in the employment eligibility verification and re-verification process."

The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) requires employers to treat all authorized workers equally during the hiring, firing and employment eligibility verification process, regardless of their national origin or citizenship status. However, it is still a criminal offense to avoid the I-9 verification process in the hiring of job applicants. Read more ..

Iran's Nukes

Iranian Negotiations Could Be Explosive

May 31st 2012

Iran Nuclear Equipment

Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program between Iran and six major powers — the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany (the P5+1) — began Wednesday in Baghdad against a backdrop of converging and intersecting factors.

First, there is the standing violation by Iran of international legal prohibitions respecting the development of a nuclear weaponization program. In particular, Iran continues to violate a series of UN Security Council resolutions involving repeated demands for complete and comprehensive suspension of Iran’s enrichment related, reprocessing and heavy water activities — as well as repeatedly violating its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by denying the IAEA permission to openly inspect their facilities.

Second, there is compelling evidence — particularly that which has emerged from the international nuclear monitor — the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — that Iran’s nuclear program is, in fact, a nuclear weaponization program. As international expert Anthony Cordesman recently concluded after an examination of IAEA reports, “Anyone who concludes that Iran is not yet pursuing a nuclear weapons program is deluding themselves.” Read more ..

Oil Addiction

Oil-Rich Nigeria Soon to Become Africa's Leading Economy

May 31st 2012

Nigeria Oil

Nigeria is currently on record as Africa’s second-largest economy, and one of the fastest growing economies on the continent and in the world. However, it is only a matter of a year or two before Nigeria becomes Africa’s largest economy. Presently it is roughly equal to South Africa.

Nigeria is expected to rebase its economy in 2012 in order to provide an accurate measure of its actual size. When neighbouring Ghana rebased its economy in 2010 it was found to be 60% larger than had previously estimated jumping from USD 18 to USD 31 billion. Nigeria is expected to have a similar jump once the rebase is completed this year. Rebasing adds different weighting on sectors that have changed over the last 30 years.

In Nigeria the telecommunications industry, banking industry, and real estate and infrastructure sectors will receive different weights due to the growth in these sectors over the last few decades. According to Renaissance Capital, Nigeria could eclipse South Africa by 2014 and is presently likely to be roughly equal in size already at over USD 400 billion.

According to projections by Price Waterhouse Coopers, Nigeria not only will be the largest African Economy in the next few years but will also eclipse major European Economies like Italy and Spain by 2050 and become one of the top 20 largest economies in the world. Read more ..

Edge of Terrorism

Serial Bomber of Arizona, Like other Terrorists, Leaves a Signature

May 31st 2012

FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force

A small improvised explosive device (IED) detonated at a Salvation Army distribution center in Phoenix, Ariz., on the afternoon of May 24. Two Salvation Army employees discovered the explosive device, which was concealed inside a yellow, hand-held 6-volt flashlight, as they were sorting through a box of donated items. The IED exploded when one of the employees picked up the flashlight and attempted to turn it on. The blast was not very powerful, and the two employees suffered only minor injuries.

This was the third incident in the Greater Phoenix area in recent weeks involving an IED concealed in a flashlight. Two explosive devices very similar to the May 24 IED exploded May 13 and May 14 in Glendale, Ariz., a city in the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area.

Both devices were abandoned in public places. In the May 13 incident, a woman discovered a yellow, hand-held 6-volt flashlight next to a tree outside a Glendale business. When the woman picked up the flashlight and attempted to turn it on, it exploded, causing minor scratches and bruises to her face and hands. It also inflicted minor wounds to a woman beside her. The next day, a man found an identical flashlight in a ditch where he was working in another part of Glendale. He was lightly injured when the flashlight exploded as he attempted to turn it on. Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

President Romney's Foreign Policy

May 30th 2012

Ask Mitt

 The U.S. presidential campaign finally has an official challenger to President Barack Obama in the November election. Mitt Romney secured the Republican Party’s nomination on May 29 by winning the Texas primary, which gave him enough delegates to become the party’s official nominee. Here's a look at how Romney – a businessman and former state governor -- has said he would handle some key U.S. foreign policy issues, if elected.

Advising Romney is a team of more than two dozen national security and foreign policy experts (see list below), almost two-thirds of whom held defense, intelligence, or diplomatic posts in former President George W. Bush’s administration.

Romney compares his foreign policy philosophy to that of former President Ronald Reagan. “The overall rubric of my foreign policy will be the same as Ronald Reagan’s: Namely, 'peace through strength,'" he once said. He also said, “A strong America is the best deterrent to war that ever has been invented.”

So Romney would confront the threat from radical Islam by strengthening U.S. intelligence services, adding 100,000 new troops to the military, and “monitoring” incoming U.S. calls from Al-Qaeda. Under President Romney, the U.S. foreign aid budget would shrink. He has said, “I will stop sending money to any country that can take care of itself. And no foreign aid will go to countries that oppose American interests.” Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Dems Face Debt-Limit Dilemma

May 30th 2012

US Capital Day

Democrats are grappling with how to approach another standoff with Republicans over raising the debt limit after abandoning demands for a “clean” increase last time around. In talks last year, Democrats campaigned vigorously for a debt-ceiling increase that was not paired with spending cuts or deficit reduction, only to drop the demand when the deadline for default approached in early August. Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), who spearheaded the push for a clean increase, acknowledged the 2011 agreement has forced Democrats into a corner.

“We made a grave mistake,” said Welch, who voted against the debt-ceiling deal. “You pass that Rubicon, and you are essentially allowing one side to hold hostage America’s reputation for paying its bills.” Republicans, led by House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), have laid out clear conditions for the next debt-limit vote: Any increase needs to be paired with a greater amount of spending cuts or reforms. Boehner’s unequivocal demand has created a dilemma for Democrats, who must decide whether to renew their call for a clean boost, or instead demand that the debt increase be paired with a “balanced” deficit-reduction deal that combines spending cuts and higher revenues. Read more ..

The Arab Fall in Egypt

The Egyptian Election and the Arab Spring

May 30th 2012

Mohammed Morsi
Mohammed Morsi

The Egyptian presidential election was held last week. No candidate received 50 percent of the vote, so a runoff will be held between the two leading candidates, Mohammed Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq. Morsi represented the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and received 25.3 percent of the vote, while Shafiq, a former Egyptian air force commander and the last prime minister to serve in Hosni Mubarak's administration, received 24.9 percent. There were, of course, charges of irregularities, but in general the results made sense.

The Islamist faction had done extremely well in the parliamentary election, and fear of an Islamist president caused the substantial Coptic community, among others, to support the candidate of the old regime, which had provided them at least some security. Morsi and Shafiq effectively tied in the first round, and either can win the next round. Morsi's strength is that he has the support of both the Islamist elements and those who fear a Shafiq presidency and possible return to the old regime. Shafiq's strength is that he speaks for those who fear an Islamist regime. Read more ..

The Arab Winter in Egypt

Militarists and Islamists in the Fore as Egypt Faces Regime Change

May 29th 2012

Egyptian women protesting

The Egyptian presidential election was held last week. No candidate received 50 percent of the vote, so a runoff will be held between the two leading candidates, Mohammed Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq. Morsi represented the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and received 25.3 percent of the vote, while Shafiq, a former Egyptian air force commander and the last prime minister to serve in Hosni Mubarak's administration, received 24.9 percent. There were, of course, charges of irregularities, but in general the results made sense. The Islamist faction had done extremely well in the parliamentary election, and fear of an Islamist president caused the substantial Coptic community, among others, to support the candidate of the old regime, which had provided them at least some security.

Morsi and Shafiq effectively tied in the first round, and either can win the next round. Morsi's strength is that he has the support of both the Islamist elements and those who fear a Shafiq presidency and possible return to the old regime. Shafiq's strength is that he speaks for those who fear an Islamist regime. The question is who will win the non-Islamist secularists' support. They oppose both factions, but they are now going to have to live with a president from one of them.

If their secularism is stronger than their hatred of the former regime, they will go with Shafiq. If not, they will go with Morsi. And, of course, it is unclear whether the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the military committee that has ruled Egypt since the fall of Mubarak, will cede any real power to either candidate, especially since the constitution hasn't even been drafted. Read more ..

The Arab Winter in Egypt

Islamists Face Setback in Egyptian Presidential Election

May 28th 2012

Voting Woman

While the Brotherhood claims victory, the election was actually a defeat—at least temporary and possibly less important than it seemed—for the Brotherhood and Islamism. Here’s why.

Muhammad Mursi (Muslim Brotherhood), 25.3 percent

Ahmad Shafiq (ex-general, ex-prime minister), 24.9 percent

Hamdin Sabbahi (radical left), 21.5 percent

Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh (“moderate Islamist), 19 percent

Amr Moussa (radical nationalist), less than 10 percent

The Islamist Camp

Note that only about 44 percent of voters backed an Islamist candidate, compared to 75 percent in the presidential election, while only about 25 percent voted for the Muslim Brotherhood compared to about 47 percent in the parliamentary vote. Why? Read more ..

Broken Economy

Long-term Unemployment Hits Asian-Americans Hardest

May 27th 2012

Unemployment Line in California

Asian-Americans suffer the highest rates of long-term unemployment of any group in the United States, according to a recent study issued by the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, D.C. While the overall Asian-American unemployment rate sits at 7.1 percent, lower than the national average of 8.1 percent, the latest data show that just over half of unemployed Asian-Americans have been without work for longer than six months.

That is up from 48.7 percent in 2010. For unemployed whites, 42.4 are long-term unemployed, for blacks it is 49.9 percent and for Hispanics, 39.8 percent. Asian-Americans are often portrayed in the media or movies as highly educated super-achievers. But the reality, according to this study, is that even the most educated are losing out on job opportunities. Asian-Americans with a college degree had an unemployment rate of 6.4 percent in 2011, while whites with the same education level had an unemployment rate of 4.3 percent, the study found. Marlene Kim, the study’s author, said several factors are driving the phenomenon. First, she said, geography plays a role in the joblessness, as nearly one-third of all Asian-Americans live in California, which is struggling with a 10.9 percent overall unemployment rate. For foreign-born Asian-Americans, many have linguistic challenges, and employers may prefer U.S. citizens over permanent residents. A final factor could be racially driven, she said. Read more ..

Honduras on Edge

Re-Assessing the US-Honduras Relationship

May 27th 2012

Obama and Presidente Porfirio Lobo Sosa
President Barack Obama with Honduran President Porfirio Lobo Sosa

Last March, U.S.-Honduran relations came under studied scrutiny after Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) and 93 other House members sent a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton advocating an across-the-board cutoff of all military and security aid to Honduras. In the Senate, Senator Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) and six of her colleagues wrote a complementary letter to express their growing concern over whether Honduran authorities were acting in full accordance with the provisions of FY 2012’s appropriations bill. The House proposal and the Senators’ associated concerns have emerged in reaction to Honduras’ enduring shabby human rights record, which has been stained by near-daily violations dating back to the 2009 coup against constitutionalist president Manuel Zelaya and the subsequent installment of a golpista regime.

Since then, Honduran security forces have been in the international hot seat for using excessive force against demonstrators and standing idly by as the country’s civilian death toll has mounted. Human rights organizations have highlighted the volatility which so plagues the country by underscoring the fact that at least 22 journalists have been murdered in Honduras over the past two years. Indicative of an overall lack of public safety, these killings have effectively deterred many reporters from inquiring into the country’s rampant corruption and human rights abuses, staunching media efforts to expose such issues. Read more ..

The Edge of Terror

Some Accuse US of Hypocrisy Over Pakistan Doctor Case

May 27th 2012

Bin Laden with AK

Tensions rose higher between Pakistan and the United States this week after a tribal court gave a long prison term to a Pakistani doctor who tried to help U.S. forces gather information about Osama bin Laden. American forces later killed the terrorist, and the doctor's actions angered many Pakistanis. Some critics say the case of Dr. Shakil Afridi has some parallels to the plight of a U.S. citizen who sold U.S. secrets to Israel, and who is serving a life term in an American prison.

U.S. forces found and killed Osama bin Laden after Dr. Shakil Afridi gathered some information for them. He was accused of running a fake vaccination campaign designed to help the CIA collect DNA from bin Laden's family in the town where bin Laden was hiding. Pakistan charged Afridi with treason and Interior Minister Rehman Malik says the judge's decision should be respected. "The person happened to be a traitor, the person happened to be before the court. The court has obverted, the court has taken the due process of law, and accordingly he has been convicted. So we have to respect our courts," Malik said. "The U.S. does not believe there is any basis for holding Dr. Afridi," said U.S Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who pressed Pakistan to release Afridi. Read more ..

China on Edge

Treasury: China Not Manipulating Currency

May 26th 2012

Chinese currency

The Treasury Department on Friday once again declined to name China a currency manipulator despite bipartisan calls for action from Congress. Treasury noted that China's currency has appreciated against the dollar since June 2010, and said it did not meet the definition of a currency manipulator under its standards.

The finding is in a semi-annual report on international economic and exchange rate policies released Friday. Treasury under President Obama and President George W. Bush has never found that China is a currency manipulator despite consistent pressure over the years. Critics say the Chinese renminbi (RMB) is undervalued, making American exports less competitive and contributing to an almost $300 billion trade deficit with China last year. Republican presidential Mitt Romney has vowed to name China a currency manipulator on his first day in office, and his campaign criticized Obama for trying to hide Treasury's decision by releasing it the Friday before Memorial Day weekend, when both the House and Senate are in recess. The report was due April 15. Read more ..

Iran's Nukes

Iran to West: We Reject Your Offer and Raise the Stakes

May 24th 2012

Karrar UAV

Acting like champion poker players, Iran rejected the Western powers' offer to settle a dispute over its nuclear program, suggesting that no future talks will be held unless the West drops or modifies existing economic sanctions. Just days ago, after Tehran had tentatively agreed to allow further inspections by the United Nations' nuclear watchdog agency, it seemed that the Iranians might be in the mood to talk. Instead, they hardened their stance by rejecting the West's offer at negotiations Wednesday in Baghdad, suggesting there was no basis for future negotiations unless the so called P5+1 accepted their demands.

According to The New York Times: Iran, unhappy with proposals on its nuclear program made by the six world powers, said on Thursday that it was unsure a new round of talks would make sense unless the negotiations were accompanied by an agreement to hold off on punishing sanctions that are to come into force in July, according to diplomats on both sides. Read more ..

Iran's Nukes

Nuclear Talks Open in Baghdad--What to Expect

May 23rd 2012

Iran holy missiles

Iran will offer concessions that stop short of allowing it to develop nuclear weapons. The West will accept these concessions and proclaim victory. Israel will be left with a fateful choice: leave an Iranian program in place that could produce nuclear weapons at any time, or attack Iran's facilities, provoking the ire of the world.

In a nutshell, that scenario appears to be the likely outcome of nuclear talks that opened today between six Western powers and Iran in Baghdad. The Iranians, eager to rid themselves of sanctions that have harmed their economy, will offer to stop enriching uranium past the 20 percent level. That level is far less than Israel requests -- at the most Israel wants just 3.5 percent enrichment -- and is indeed far more than Iran could produce just two years ago. But Iranian willingness to negotiate the end of a conflict that has taken the world to the brink of war may be too much for the West to pass over. Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Scandalized DOE Loan Program has Romney Connection

May 23rd 2012

Mitt Romney expansive

The federal energy loan program that has created headaches for President Barack Obama has a Mitt Romney connection. Cathy Tripodi of FaegreBD Consulting lobbies on behalf of Abound Solar, a company that was awarded a $400 million loan guarantee through the same Department of Energy program that aided Solyndra, the now-bankrupt California company that included an Obama bundler as an investor. Tripodi is a bundler for Romney. She raised $27,000 for the presumptive Republican nominee in April, according to documents filed by his campaign with the Federal Election Commission Sunday. After receiving a federal loan guarantee, Solyndra ultimately went bankrupt, sticking taxpayers with a $535 million bill and providing fodder for Republican attacks against the president and his green energy initiatives.

Many pundits and politicos began uttering Abound’s name in the same sentence as Solyndra this spring, after Abound announced plans to lay off 280 workers from a Colorado plant and delay the opening of a factory in Indiana. Earlier this month, the Government Reform Committee in the U.S. House of Representatives brought in Abound’s president to testify. Abound paid $150,000 to FaegreBD Consulting to lobby Congress and the Department of Energy from November through March, records show. Read more ..

Iran's Nukes

UN Announces Nuke Inspection Deal with Iran as General Demands Israel's "Full Annihilation"

May 22nd 2012

Iran Long-Range Missile

The United Nations' nuclear watchdog agency said Wednesday it has concluded an agreement with Iran to probe that country's suspected nuclear sites. According to International Atomic Energy Agency director Yukiya Amano a deal will be signed "soon." Israel reacted with immediate skepticism to any such agreement, saying that Iran has lied to the world before about its nuclear intentions. "Iran has proven over the years its lack of credibility, its dishonesty -- telling the truth is not its strong side -- and therefore we have to be suspicious of them all the time, and examine the agreement that is being formulated," Civil Defense Minister Matan Vilnai said on Israel Radio.

Details of the deal were not disclosed, but immediate speculation led to the conclusion that Iran may use this agreement to demand that Western nations drop or limit sanctions that have hurt Iran's economy. Iran seemed to broadcast its true intentions Sunday when Iranian military chief Major General Hassan Firouzabadi confirmed in a speech that the Persian Empire doesn’t like the Jewish Homeland in its backyard. Read more ..

The Arab Winter in Egypt

Election Surge by Egypt's Old Guard Frustrates Revolutionary Youth

May 22nd 2012

Tahrir Square 22 nov 2011

 Egyptian youth are expected to turn out in high numbers for their country's first presidential election since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak. Many of the young activists who took part in last year's uprising say they feel they are not fully represented in the vote.

Egypt's revolution primarily was an uprising of the young -- a rejection of the old, stifling, decades-long government.  So it is particularly galling to many activists that two of the front-runners in this week's presidential election -- Amr Moussa and Ahmed Shafik -- made their names as members of the old guard. In a cafe not far from Tahrir Square, youths who took part in the historic protests there now despair of the possible election of felool, or “remnants," as those of the previous government are derisively called. ​​Mostafa Abdel Ragman Kajo is a writer and member of the opposition April 6 Youth Movement.

He says it would mean the death of the revolution.  It's not fair, he argues, that thousands of youths spilled their blood for freedom, and then one who fought against them became president. The other top choices in the race might seem equally problematic for activist voters.  Both Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh and Mohamed Morsi are Islamists. Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Obama Campaign Turns to Rahm Emanuel, the ‘Dems’ Karl Rove’

May 22nd 2012

Rahm Emanuel
Rahm Emanuel

President Obama’s reelection campaign is taking strategic advice from former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, whom one operative described as the “Democratic Party’s Karl Rove.” Emanuel, a friend of both campaign manager Jim Messina and senior strategist and fellow Chicagoan David Axelrod, periodically weighs in “very clearly” on what the campaign should be doing, a Democratic official said.

The pugnacious Emanuel, who left the White House for a successful bid to become Chicago’s mayor, came to Obama’s defense last week when news reports surfaced that the Ricketts family — which owns the Chicago Cubs — was considering launching a $10 million campaign against Obama tied to his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Emanuel, who was said to be “livid,” allegedly cut off ties, at least temporarily, with the family. “The Ricketts have tried to contact the mayor, but he’s said that he does not want to talk with them today, tomorrow or anytime soon,” an aide told The Washington Post.

Emanuel officially moved on from Obama-world two years ago after playing an instrumental role in pushing healthcare reform into law with his strong-arm tactics (and the occasional F-bomb). This week he hosted his former boss and other international leaders at the NATO summit. When the president and first lady Michelle Obama landed in Chicago on Saturday night for the summit, Emanuel and his wife, Amy Rule, were waiting at the airport to greet them. But it wasn’t just any ordinary airport meet-and-greet. The two couples exchanged hugs and boarded Marine One together for the chopper ride into the heart of their hometown. Those who know the blunt, hot-tempered Emanuel well say it’s a smart move for Obama’s campaign to include him in its discussions. “He’s one of our best strategists, he’s the Democratic Party’s Karl Rove,” said one source who has known Emanuel for years. “He still has that gift and that strategic mind that any sitting Democratic president running for reelection would want.” “Rahm is one of the smartest political tacticians out there,” added a former Obama White House senior official. “And the bonus he brings to the table is he knows all the personalities involved. I can’t think of a better advocate.” Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Voters' Views of Mormonism Still Hamper Romney's Campaign

May 22nd 2012

mitt romney

Mitt Romney's religion was a major stumbling block for his 2008 presidential aspirations, and remains so for his candidacy in 2012, according to David Campbell at the University of Notre Dame. Real time voter analysis of the 2008 primaries reveals that while the social barriers of race and gender were largely overcome during the last US presidential campaign, religious affiliation (in this case, the Church of Latter Day Saints) is still a significant hurdle. A new article in Springer's journal, Political Behavior, suggests that a "stained glass ceiling" remains an obstacle to Mitt Romney's 2012 bid for the White House.

Campbell's paper – split into four sections – examines why Romney was unable to break the religion barrier in 2008. The first part of the article describes the attitudes of Americans towards Mormons – an important example of a religious 'out-group'. The research finds that the religion remains unpopular and mysterious because of the relative social insularity of Mormons. Part two reviews published work to establish how Romney's faith might have worked against him in 2008, and the third section reveals voter-survey data that supports these findings. Finally, part four looks at the implications of these findings for the 2012 election, and for the future of religious tolerance in the US. Read more ..

Iran's Nukes

Prospects for Success in the Iran Nuclear Negotiations

May 21st 2012


Both Tehran and Washington are downplaying expectations for the May 23 Baghdad negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany). Indeed, the prospects for eventual success are uncertain. If Iran is truly prepared to deal, and if the parties find appreciable overlap between what they are willing to concede, they may be able to forge an interim agreement, though the value and durability of such a deal may not be clear.

To enable serious compromise, Iran must take two actions: prepare public opinion and include more-skilled diplomats in the negotiating team. Regarding the first item, Iranian officials consistently deny the impact of sanctions on both the nuclear program and economy. This fact suggests that if Tehran decides to make a concession, it will not want the move to be publicly perceived as a capitulation to economic pressure. Instead, the regime would need to present any nuclear accord as a victory for Iran. Read more ..

The Edge of Terrorism

A Toxic Brew in Sinai

May 21st 2012

Sinai, Egypt-Israel Border

The anti-Israel rhetoric of Egypt's new leaders has made the problem of Sinai terror almost unsolvable. The result could be a war no one actually wants.

To grasp how badly the security situation in Sinai has deteriorated, one fact suffices: Israel now receives as many intelligence warnings about Sinai-based terror plots as it does about terror from Gaza. This, obviously, is of great concern to Israel. But it should also concern the international community because, unlike terror from the West Bank or Gaza, which, despite periodic Israeli counteroffensives, has never drawn other Arab countries into the conflict, Sinai-based terror could easily end up starting a war between Israel and Egypt.

Last summer, for instance, angry mobs throughout Egypt demanded retaliation after Israeli soldiers repelling a cross-border terror attack from Sinai accidentally killed Egyptian troops caught in the cross-fire. That time, sanity prevailed and the Egyptian government did not seek to escalate the situation militarily. But if cross-border attacks proliferate, more Egyptian casualties would likely ensue. Public demands for retaliatory action would then intensify - especially since Egypt's new leadership seems to prefer whipping up anti-Israel passions to cooling them down: In a televised debate earlier this month, for instance, both leading presidential contenders termed Israel an "enemy" and an "adversary" and vowed to reconsider the peace treaty. Read more ..

Gaza on Edge

Looking Back at the Rise of Hamas in Gaza

May 20th 2012

Hamas at Press Conference

Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement which controls the Gaza Strip, recently held internal elections. The polls were for the Gaza Political Bureau and Shura Council, often described as the movement’s parliament. Hamas holds its votes in secret, and tries to prevent the outside world from gaining knowledge of the movement’s internal political processes. However, it has become clear that the elections represented a significant victory for Hamas’s Gaza leadership. This came at the expense of the formerly Damascus-based external leadership group of Khaled Meshaal, which is now scattered across the region. 

Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh is now the head of the Gaza Political Bureau. This is the top movement position in the Strip. He is the first to hold this title since Abd al-Aziz Rantisi was killed by Israel in 2004. The latest victory of the Gaza leaders may be a step on the road to their capture of the overall leadership of Hamas. This advance, in turn, may be traced back to two key elements.

First, the Gaza leaders possess power, a key element that their rivals lack. They hold real political and administrative power and control over the lives of the 1.7 million inhabitants of Gaza and of the 365 square kilometers in which they live. Second: the upheavals in the Arab world — and specifically the civil war in Syria — have served to severely weaken the formerly Damascus-based external leadership, depleting the value of the assets they held in the competition with the internal Gaza leaders. Read more ..

Edge of Terrorism

An Internal Struggle is Evidenced in Hamas Terrorists' Secret Election

May 18th 2012

Hamas leader Khaled Meshal
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal

The ongoing Hamas elections will strengthen the military wing, weaken Khaled Mashal, make reconciliation with the PA more difficult, preserve close collaboration with Iran, and, perhaps, forge closer ties with Egypt.

The secretive elections for new Hamas leadership bodies are unofficially scheduled to continue until later this month, but it is already safe to point out some emerging trends as the movement struggles to cope with fierce debate over its future course. Top leader Khaled Mashal has been considerably weakened as his rivals in Gaza gain more influence and commanders in the military wing assume a much broader political role. In all likelihood, these developments will further complicate the group's stalled reconciliation efforts with the Palestinian Authority, accelerate its dash to achieve mass self-production of longer-range, more accurate missiles, and prevent -- at least for the foreseeable future -- a political divorce from Iran. Read more ..

The Edge of Climate Change

Climate Activists Rip Clear Channel for Rejecting Billboard

May 18th 2012

Heartland Climate Change Billboard

An advocacy group has blasted Clear Channel for rejecting an advertisement aimed at countering a controversial Heartland Institute climate change billboard. The week of May 14-18, 2012, the Chicago branch of Clear Channel Outdoor rejected the digital billboard proposed by Forecast the Facts, a group that advocates for connecting extreme weather to climate change. Clear Channel is a major national media company.

The ad was a response to a short-lived Heartland Institute billboard campaign that compared those who support climate science to the Unabomber and Charles Manson. Heartland pulled the billboard, which ran ahead of the conservative group’s upcoming Chicago climate change conference, amid outrage from its supporters and environmental groups.

The Forecast the Facts billboard took aim at Pfizer, one of Heartland’s corporate backers, for not cutting ties with the group. The proposed ad includes the Pfizer logo alongside text that reads, “We still support climate deniers. Do you?” Pfizer has stood by Heartland despite growing pressure from activists. The pharmaceutical company said it disagrees with Heartland’s stance on climate change, but supports the group on health policy, according to a statement provided by the company to Forecast the Facts. Read more ..

Europe on Edge

The Euro End Game

May 17th 2012

Euro Symbol

Europe faces a simple but intractable problem. Either price levels have to rise in Germany, or they have to fall in the rest of Europe, especially in Southern Europe. That includes Spain, Italy, Portugal, and the hapless Greece. But the rising burden of deflationary policies that Germany is imposing on Southern Europe has led to a growing anti-austerity backlash in recent elections. The economic suffering in Southern Europe and Ireland is clearly demonstrated in the extraordinary rise in overall unemployment and youth unemployment rates in Europe since 2008.

Beyond southern Europe, France is also moving into the camp of countries that are increasingly reluctant to adopt “austerity”—code for deflationary policies—in exchange for low interest-rate loans from the European Community (EC), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the European Central Bank (ECB). These loans have been made largely on terms dictated by Germany in exchange for footing much of the bailout bill. The May 6 victory of François Hollande in the final round of the French presidential election signals a broadening backlash against the fiscal austerity that has characterized all of Europe’s efforts to preserve the euro. Read more ..

America on Edge

Wisconsin Gov. Walker’s Conservative Media Appearances Pay Off in Millions from Out-of-state Donors

May 16th 2012

Gov Scott Walker (R-WI)

On Nov. 10, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gave the keynote address at the annual dinner of the Goldwater Institute, a conservative think tank in Phoenix with ties to the powerful, corporate-funded American Legislative Exchange Council. “Tonight, you might say I’m preaching to the choir with a bunch of fellow conservatives,” Walker, the son of a minister, told more than 1,000 supporters that night. “I preach to the choir because I want the choir to sing. So tonight I’m asking you to sing.” His message: Spread the word “in Arizona and all across America that we can do things better.”

The high-profile event was no anomaly. Two days later, Walker addressed students at a conference at the Reagan Ranch in Santa Barbara, Calif., where he was billed as one of America’s “top conservative leaders.”

Walker’s official calendars from his first 13 months in office chronicle these and scores more hours he spent building credentials with conservatives in Wisconsin and across the nation. The governor granted more interview time to the national, conservative-leaning Fox News cable channel than any other media outlet—nearly twice as much as to his hometown newspaper, the Pulitzer Prize-winning Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, which had endorsed him in 2010. Read more ..

Inside France

The Shadow of DeGaulle Emerges in France as Hollande Takes the Helm

May 15th 2012

Charles de Gaulle TIME

New political leaders do not invent new national strategies. Rather, they adapt enduring national strategies to the moment. On Tuesday, Francois Hollande will be inaugurated as France's president, and soon after taking the oath of office, he will visit German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. At this moment, the talks are expected to be about austerity and the European Union, but the underlying issue remains constant: France's struggle for a dominant role in European affairs at a time of German ascendance.

Two events shaped modern French strategy. The first, of course, was the defeat of Napoleon in 1815 and the emergence of Britain as the world's dominant naval power and Europe's leading imperial power. This did not eliminate French naval or imperial power, but it profoundly constrained it. France could not afford to challenge Britain any more and had to find a basis for accommodation, ending several centuries of hostility if not distrust.

The second moment came in 1871 when the Prussians defeated France and presided over the unification of German states. After its defeat, France had to accept not only a loss of territory to Germany but also the presence of a substantial, united power on its eastern frontier. From that moment, France's strategic problem was the existence of a unified Germany.

France had substantial military capabilities, perhaps matching and even exceeding that of Germany. However, France's strategy for dealing with Germany was to build a structure of alliances against Germany. First, it allied with Britain, less for its land capabilities than for the fact that Britain's navy could blockade Germany and therefore deter it from going to war. The second ally was Russia, the sheer size of which could threaten Germany with a two-front war if one began. Between its relationships with Britain and Russia, France felt it had dealt with its strategic problem. Read more ..

Battle for Syria

Flunking the Syria Test

May 14th 2012

Riot Gear Police

With the Syrian uprising now past its one-year anniversary, it's long past time to take stock of the carnage. More than 7,000 people have been killed to date by the Assad regime, as it has unleashed war on its own people.

The spark that lit the fire was an errant one. On March 6, 2011, state security forces arrested 15 teenagers for spray painting anti-regime graffiti on a wall in the southern city of Deraa. Their continued detention sparked massive demonstrations in the city, and in turn were met by the regime's brutal crackdown using live fire and tear gas. By the time the teenagers were released, the flashpoints between the Syrian security services and the protesters had already claimed many lives. This began the cycle of funerals which became rallying points for further protests—and further regime violence.

The anti-regime opposition began as a peaceful protest against a dictatorship. President Bashar al-Assad's brutal response—including the arrest and torture of regime opponents, the indiscriminate shelling of cities, and the cutoff of escape routes to Turkey and Lebanon for civilian refugees—has pushed the opposition to respond with force. Read more ..

Africa on Edge

How to Get the Correct Response to Food Shortages in the Sahel

May 14th 2012

Sahel starvation

A bleak narrative of 16 million plus people on the brink of starvation in West Africa’s Sahel region has captured headlines. But the brewing food crisis, spanning Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad, has been overstated, and the headlines fail to identify the core causes of food insecurity and malnutrition in the region. It’s true that the expanse of the Sahel is a food insecure area.

But not all insecure regions, even at this level, can be classified as potential famines due to a lack of food. The international community has been and seems again to be content to provide massive amounts of food aid and deal with the symptoms rather than address the underlying causes of this chronic crisis: lack of community resilience. The real crisis in the Sahel is one of persistently high rates of acute malnutrition, an issue that has affected the region’s residents for decades and cannot be addressed with short-term emergency food assistance alone. It requires a more robust response.

Words matter. Even calls for food aid are driving up prices and detracting attention from these core issues. It’s true that the picture is not a good one: poor harvest, higher food prices, and malnutrition are in fact evident in certain areas. Conflict, displacement, and a drop off in remittances have been noted as signs of an impending crisis. Vulnerable populations require food and other immediate assistance. But the current narrative places an overemphasis on food aid. Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Florida Becomes Battleground for House and Senate Races

May 13th 2012

Unemployment Line in California

Florida is full of competitive Senate and House races in 2012, but good luck to any candidate who tries to break through the noise of what is guaranteed to be a fierce battle between Mitt Romney and President Obama in the Sunshine state. The ultimate swing state, Florida was responsible for delivering George W. Bush to the White House in 2000, while Obama won there by 3 points in 2008. Romney trounced his rivals in the GOP primary there in January, and neither candidate can afford to take the state for granted.

The economy is likely to be the focal point of the race in Florida, as in other states. One worrying sign for the Obama campaign is that the economic recovery in Florida has lagged behind other areas of the country. Florida’s unemployment rate is hovering around 9 percent — down from a high of 11.3 percent in 2010, but still far above the national rate of 8.2 percent. Adding to the high-octane political climate will be the convergence of conservative leaders from across the country in Tampa, Fla. for the Republican National Convention in August. Read more ..

The Battle for Syria

With Election Charade, Assad Bides Time

May 13th 2012

Syrian Protesters

Polling stations for the Syrian “Peoples’ Assembly” election opened at 7 a.m. on Monday. Information Minister Dr. Adnan Mahmoud said the elections would be held in “an atmosphere of democracy and pluralism,” according to the SANA state news agency.
Opposition activists dispute the claim, saying that the current polls are the latest episode in an ongoing regime campaign of window-dressing, of fiddling while the country burns. The scheduled vote is part of the strange, alternate reality that the Syrian regime seeks to create around itself and the population over which it rules.

The authorities tout the elections as the latest stage in a reform process initiated by dictator Bashar Assad in February. At that time, with world attention focused on the crackdown of opposition forces in Homs, the regime held a referendum on a new constitution. Assad claimed 89 percent of the public’s support for his proposals. But there is little new about the current elections.

The Arab Winter in Egypt

Winter or Spring: Islamists, the Military, and Post-Revolution Politics in Egypt

May 13th 2012

Egyptian Kid at Rally

The so-called “Arab Spring” has forever changed the face of the Middle East, and it’s not finished. While the revolts that toppled longtime autocrats in Tunisia and Libya were remarkable accomplishments, these states are of little strategic interest to the United States. Unlike Libya and Tunisia, what transpires in Syria—an ally of Iran that possesses a substantial chemical weapons stockpile—could have significant implications for Washington. But Syria remains a work in progress.

To date, the most important development in the region for the U.S. has been the fall of Egypt’s longtime president Hosni Mubarak. Since 1977, Egypt has been a strategic partner of the United States—providing essential political support to U.S. policies in the Middle East—and an important peace partner of Israel in a hostile region.

The fall of Mubarak heralds a change in the regional strategic architecture that had been in place since 1979. For decades, the regional balance of power pitted U.S.-oriented Egypt, Turkey, and Israel against anti-Western, terrorist-supporting regimes in Iraq and Iran. While the structure had changed slightly before February 2011—Iraq dropping off the “adversaries” list in 2003 about the same time that Turkey under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) moved out of the pro-West camp—Egypt remained a key friend to the United States. With the tectonic political and social shifts in post-Mubarak Egypt, however, it is unclear how long this friendship will continue, and what U.S.- Egyptian bilateral relations will look like going forward. Read more ..

The Obama Edge

DOMA Repeal Revisited With Obama's Support of Gay Marriage

May 13th 2012

Obama pensive with flag

Legislation to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) is garnering new attention from lawmakers in the wake of President Obama's support of same-sex marriage.

The Respect for Marriage Act would repeal DOMA and afford federal protections to legally married same-sex married couples, like those in New York state and elsewhere, that male and female couples already enjoy. Since Obama's statement Wednesday, the bill has picked up new co-sponsors and Democratic leaders, like Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (Md.), have said they would support legalizing same-sex marriage.

That has given new hope to activists lobbying for the bill, such as Jo Deutsch, federal director for Freedom to Marry. Deutsch said that White House support of same-sex marriage can guide lawmakers through the same evolution on the issue that the president just completed. “It shows a man going from point one — from his own questioning, to talking to family and friends, thinking about his own religious upbringing, from seeing people who are impacted by DOMA — and come to end of that journey and say he is for the freedom to marry,” Deutsch said. “That piece acts as an umbrella over all of what is going on on Capitol Hill. ... Because if President Obama can do it and say he is for the freedom to marry, maybe I can do it too." Read more ..

The Drug Wars

The Future of Mexico’s Drug Strategy

May 12th 2012

Nuevo Leon shoot out


The Mideast on Edge

Gulf Arab Leaders Meet to Discuss Syria and Iran

May 12th 2012

Arab League meeting

Normally, the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman meet as a group only once a year, at the Gulf Cooperation Council summit held annually in December. The May 14 talks in Riyadh are therefore being dubbed a "consultative meeting" rather than a true summit. Yet their importance is likely greater than the term indicates.

Arab diplomats suggest that Syria will top the agenda -- a symptom of both the anguish that Gulf Arabs feel at the growing number of casualties and the worsening prospects for any arranged transition to a post-Assad government, as evidenced by yesterday's attack on one of the regime's intelligence buildings in Damascus. In the vocabulary of Arab diplomacy, the Syria tragedy is being called a "key regional development in the Arab world." Read more ..

Egypt on Edge

Egypt in Transition: What Happened to the Liberal Youths of Tahrir Square?

May 11th 2012

Tahrir Square 22 nov 2011
Tahrir square, 22 November 2011 (credit: Lilian Wagdy)

Fifteen months after the Egyptian revolution, the largely secular youth movement on the streets of Egypt has lost much of its enthusiasm. As the deadline for the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to transfer power looms ever closer, the most pressing issue for Egypt’s revolutionaries is their lack of representation in the formation of a new government in the place of Hosni Mubarak’s regime, which they were instrumental in toppling.

The revolutionary youth, however, have failed to articulate clear demands to negotiate with the various presidential candidates. Instead of endorsing one viable candidate to represent their interests, they have backed disparate—and failed—campaigns. Consider that of Khaled Ali, a young lawyer who has emerged as a symbol of the liberal youth, but who will win few votes. Ali may be granted an equally symbolic spot in the cabinet, but his candidacy ultimately will only serve to dilute their potential influence. The failure to provide a valid revolutionary candidate leads to even more division among the already fragmented Egyptian street movement. Read more ..

Iran's Nukes

Sanctions Are Only a Stop-Gap

May 10th 2012

Iran Banknotes

To judge the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Iran, it is important to first establish their purpose. U.S. officials and their European counterparts have set out a number of different goals for the sanctions regime, including deterring the proliferation of nuclear technology across the Middle East, as other countries imitate Iran, and persuading Iran to comply with the UN Security Council’s orders to suspend all nuclear enrichment. The sanctions have met some of those aims and failed to meet others. But for the Obama administration, they have succeeded in one crucial way -- bringing Iran back to the negotiating table. The question, then, is not whether sanctions have worked but whether the strategy they serve is correct.

To begin with, Tehran’s decision to reenter discussions about the future of its nuclear program represents a dramatic about-face. During the January 2011 round of negotiations between Iran and the so-called P5 plus 1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany), for example, Tehran rejected any talk of its nuclear program. For the next 15 months, it refused to meet until the P5 plus 1 accepted the precondition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium. In new talks in Istanbul this past March, however, Iran agreed to discuss its nuclear efforts and dropped its precondition. Read more ..

Israel on Edge

The New Israeli Coalition and the Elephant in the Cabinet Room

May 9th 2012

Bibi at Podium

Rarely do politics in a democratic country wrap up as neatly as they did for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week. Having scheduled new parliamentary elections that he was assuredly going to win, today he announced that the coalition was expanded and reconstituted, and will last until September 2013—the legal expiration of the current Knesset.

A partial list of Netanyahu’s accomplishments:
• He saved millions of dollars the country didn’t need to spend right now. There are a lot of Americans who think a parliamentary system looks pretty good at this point for speed and thrift.
• He added a Persian-born, Farsi-speaking former Chief of the IDF General Staff to his Cabinet. This helps counter criticism of the government’s posture on the Iranian threat from former Mossad Chief Meir Dagan and former Shin Bet Chairman Yuval Diskin.
• He diminished the importance of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beiteinu Party, farther to the right than Likud, is no longer essential to the coalition. This allows the Government greater flexibility in domestic as well as foreign policy—if the Government wants greater flexibility.
• He effectively froze the Labor Party, which split in 2011 when Defense Minister Ehud Barak pulled out the more centrist elements and formed the Independence Party, which stayed in the Government. Labor was hoping to find more seats in the Knesset by consolidating the left wing of Israeli politics.
• He protected himself from electioneering nastiness that might be cooked up by domestic opponents, or perhaps opponents directed by friends of the American administration—which sees Netanyahu as something between an unwelcome dinner guest and the devil. Just because President Obama has to be on his best pro-Israel behavior until November doesn’t mean his friends did. Read more ..

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